MEDIA RELEASE PR39626
US Real Estate Markets Moving Toward Recovery
CORAL GABLES, Fla., May 19 /PRNewswire-AsiaNet/ --
The US economy is recovering and it is beginning to show in job growth.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 290,000 jobs for
April. The largest share, 27.5% was in professional and business services
with 80,000 new jobs. The federal government followed with 66,000 new
temporary workers to assist with the decennial census. Health care also grew,
adding 20,000 workers and increasing its year-to-date total to 244,000. For
the year, employment has expanded by 573,000 with 483,000 or 84% added to the
private sector.
Meanwhile, unemployment increased from 9.7% to 9.9%, which oddly is a
"good" sign. The increase is the result of people re-entering the employment
market; meaning the economy is starting to recover in earnest. Thus far, the
data is reflecting the traditional pattern of a slowly recovering economy.
Looking at past recessions the 1980s appears to be the most similar. It
was capital constrained much like we are today. In the 1990s we were
over-built and had the S & L crisis to resolve. The cry was "stay alive to
'95." In early 2000 we had the dot com crisis and accounting scandals.
Looking at the recession of the early 1980s as a guide, it may be 3 years or
more before life begins to feel like "normal." The recession of the 1980s
lasted 16 months running from July 1981 to November 1982. As a result of that
downturn, unemployment peaked in November of 1982 at 10.8%. From that point
it took 38 months for the economy to fully recover and for unemployment to
fall below 7.0%. It was another 10 months before the economy was consistently
below 7.0%. So, full recovery this cycle is likely 3 years away with an
optimal selling period 3 to 4 years away at the earliest. Current signals
suggest now is an optimal buying period.
Thus far, the current economy is consistent with expected patterns and
our forecasts. Other data is also suggesting recovery. This is further
illustrated in the most recently available quarterly data extracted from the
National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF). Beginning in
the second quarter of 2009, decreases in total returns began to steadily
abate, and as of the most recent quarter turned slightly positive. This
offers another strong signal that the market has reached bottom and is
beginning to turn upward. This is also a strong signal that we are entering
an optimal buying period.
With the use of our research Blumberg Capital Partners, our parent
organization recognized this cyclical pattern early, and sold its assets
between 2006 and 2008, near the cycle peak and closed its prior Fund. Now the
trend is reflecting a market nearing bottom and moving toward recovery. In
response, Philip Blumberg CEO of Blumberg Capital Partners is launching a new
fund, the Blumberg Strategic Asset Fund and is again looking to acquire
assets.
Media Contact: Bill Hemingway
Media Contact #: 305-569-0800
SOURCE: Blumberg Capital Partners
CONTACT: Bill Hemingway
+1-305-569-0800
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